IPO Winners & Losers: Two Storms, the Big Three, and Software's Return

Welcome back to Renaissance Capital’s IPO Winners and Losers — the weekly podcast breaking down the biggest stories shaping the IPO market, new stocks, and Wall Street sentiment.

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This week:
• The IPO market rallies as recent new stocks continue to outperform
• Seven IPOs line up for one of the busiest weeks since 2021
• SpaceX prepares to launch its roadshow into a red-hot market
• Liftoff Mobile tests whether the software IPO window is finally reopening
• OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX reshape the 2026 mega-IPO calendar

We also discuss why the IPO market may be shifting from a narrow rebound to broader participation, what Cerebras’ pullback says about pricing discipline, and why the next two weeks could reveal whether investor demand is truly deep — or just chasing hype.

If you follow IPOs, AI infrastructure, market psychology, or disruptive growth companies, this is the place to stay ahead of the next wave of public market stories.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

This week's winner, every recent IPO that's been riding the rally. This week's loser, anyone who thought the rebound was going to stay narrow.

SPEAKER_01 0:10

And with seven IPOs lined up for next week and SpaceX's roadshow imminent, the calm before the storm is officially over. Let's get into it with this week's winners and losers.

SPEAKER_00 0:23

Quick note before we dive in, this podcast is for informational purposes only, and nothing we discuss should be taken as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and one cannot invest directly in an index. For the full disclosure, check the end of this recording. So let's walk through the week because the headline is what's coming, not what just happened. The newsletter frames it perfectly. This was the calm before the storms, and yes, storms plural, because there are two distinct ones lining up.

SPEAKER_01 0:55

Right. Storm one, seven IPOs next week, tying the busiest week since 2021. Two are raising over a billion. Now Storm Two, SpaceX Roach are launching late next week.

SPEAKER_00 1:09

Yeah, and the backdrop is pretty extraordinary. The IPO index ended the week up 6.6% compared to 1.4% for the SP 500. So that puts the index up nearly 24% near to date, more than double the SP's 10.7%.

SPEAKER_01 1:24

And that gap, or rather, back-to-back gaps, is the real story. The IPO market isn't just participating in the rally, it's leading it. That is a complete roll reversal from where we were two months ago.

SPEAKER_00 1:38

Yeah, it feels like a real reversal. So let's move to the deal side and start with what's pricing next week. Uh we have seven deals, like you mentioned, Matt, tying the record for busiest weeks since 2021, uh, two raising over a billion. Um and the themes are familiar, but the volume is definitely new.

SPEAKER_01 1:56

Right. So we've got a company called Applied Aerospace and Defense. That's our defense play. It fits with the year's dominant theme. Uh, we've also got Ineo Holding and AI Infrastructure and Power Company. They produce natural gas engines that kind of feed into the data center demand there.

SPEAKER_00 2:13

Mm-hmm. Uh, and then we have Quantinuum, which is the Moonshot quantum computing, a space that until now has really been restricted to SPAC mergers. So that's pure speculative growth, um, but may do well in a market that's been rewarding lottery tickets.

SPEAKER_01 2:29

And with Continuum too, they do have their publicly traded parent Honeywell. So if investors are comfortable with Honeywell, uh they may uh buy into Continuum. Uh other deals lined up for the week, we've got White Hawk Minerals on the energy side. So uh just to recap, we've got defense, uh AI infrastructure and power, quantum computing, and oil and gas. So that's really been the 2026 IPO market and a microcosm.

SPEAKER_00 2:54

Mm-hmm. But we have to talk about the most interesting name, which is Liftoff Mobile. This one tried to go public earlier this year, but ended up withdrawing, um, now refiled and aiming to be the first software IPO of the year.

SPEAKER_01 3:08

And that's a meaningful first. Software has been the most punished sector this year. The AI disruption overhang on SaaS has kept issuers on the sidelines for months. And you know, it's no coincidence that we've seen a strong rally in close comparable AppLovin or other high-profile software stocks this week, like Snowflake or you know, the recent rally in Datadog.

SPEAKER_00 3:30

And if liftoff price as well, it cracks open a category that's really been frozen. So that's much bigger than the size suggests.

SPEAKER_01 3:39

Now, of course, one deal does not make a trend, and Liftoff's proposed valuation is well below where it was during its last attempt. But it does test the thesis, and the answer matters for dozens of software companies sitting on the pipeline. But uh let me ask you a question, Avery. Is Liftoff coming now to ride the SpaceX tailwinds? Are people gonna think this is like a rocket company, Lyft Off Mobile? It's got the rocket troop and the logo.

SPEAKER_00 4:06

Yeah, yeah, they're just hoping, you know, look at the logo, nothing else. Yeah, so now let's talk about that second storm because it kind of dwarfs everything else. And of course, talking about SpaceX, uh, the company is rumored to launch its roadshow late next week. Pricing mid-June, uh June 12th, to be exact, um, reportedly. Uh the S1 dropped last week, and now the actual deal command deal mechanics are about to start.

SPEAKER_01 4:33

Right. And as the newsletter puts it, SpaceX couldn't have asked for a better market. The IPO index is ripping, sentiment is risk on for sure, and AI names are leading the way.

SPEAKER_00 4:44

Yeah, definitely no accident on the timing. Uh issuers and bankers read the tape, and this is the most receptive backdrop they've had in years.

SPEAKER_01 4:53

And what a stark contrast from two months ago. Uh, so it looks like the IPO calendar isn't fully clearing the way for SpaceX either. Uh, we've got uh new filings this week from Entrada, Doncasters, and Cardigan. Those could all price the week after SpaceX. I know that's been a sorry, you know, will this crowd out the calendar entirely? Looks like not. We've got some more deals lined up uh after SpaceX.

SPEAKER_00 5:16

Mm-hmm. Yeah, that's an important read. Historically, mega deals kind of consume all the attention and starve the rest of the calendar. Um, I mean, you can even look back to something like Facebook back in 2012. Uh, but the fact that issuers are willing to file alongside SpaceX says the demand pool is actually deep. Um, I think it is worth noting that we might see little else on the calendar leading up to when SpaceX prices, but um it looks like it's gonna crack wide open after that.

SPEAKER_01 5:43

Right. We've got the the seven deals next week, and then I think SpaceX will probably have the following week all to itself. Uh, and then after that, we've got more deals, assuming SpaceX does not flop. Uh, if that happens, then all bets are off. But uh yeah, just to emphasize the software point from earlier, entrata, a real estate management platform. So, you know, after lift off mobile, that's multiple software companies kind of testing waters. It's a pattern. We'll see if it turns into a trend.

SPEAKER_00 6:11

And it ties into a bigger theme because the mega IPO picture just got a lot clearer. Um, we have AI giant anthropic raising $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation. So that's more than double its $380 billion value from just February and kind of totally eclipses OpenAI's most recent round.

SPEAKER_01 6:34

Right. That valuation jump in four months is just staggering. Everything about this is staggering. Uh the financials reportedly support it too. Nearly $11 billion in quarterly revenue, growing 130% year over year with an operating profit. So just for reference, SpaceX had $4.7 billion in revenue in the first quarter, 15% growth, and $2 billion operating loss. So, really some very impressive numbers from Anthropic here. I think that justifies that valuation.

SPEAKER_00 7:04

Mm-hmm. And that gets glossed over a lot by retail investors, I think, who aren't digging as deep because Anthropic isn't just a high valuation private company. It's even profitable. Uh that changes the IPO conversation entirely, especially considering how capital-intensive AI tends to be.

SPEAKER_01 7:22

And the timing now points to a fall 2026 IPO. So we've got SpaceX in June, OpenAI reportedly in September, and then Anthropic in the fall.

SPEAKER_00 7:32

All three of the big three mega IPOs in 2026. Um, that's a calendar that wasn't really short up or even likely two months ago.

SPEAKER_01 7:41

Right. Yeah. I was thinking, you know, we'd obviously get SpaceX, but I was thinking we'd be lucky if we got one of the other two. Now it looks like we were going to get all three. Uh so each one creates kind of its own form of market gravity, you might say. SpaceX brings in the retail and space enthusiasm. OpenAI brings in consumer AI, one of the hottest brands in uh AI platforms. And then Anthropic uh really specializes in that enterprise AI thesis.

SPEAKER_00 8:09

Mm-hmm. So three different stories targeting maybe a similar investor base, but all hitting the public market in the same year. That's a structural structural shift uh in what the IPO market looks like. But yeah, we need to address the obvious concern because the newsletter raises it directly. Um, a healthy amount of FOMO can drive outsized returns, but recent stock market corrections are still fresh in investors' memory. So, how sustainable or really how believable is this recent rally?

SPEAKER_01 8:38

Yeah, and I've got another cautionary data point for you. Uh Cerebrus down more than 20% from its first day close. So you may recall Cerebrus was the deal three weeks ago, 68% pop on day one with a $5 billion deal size. Now it's given a meaningful chunk of that back.

SPEAKER_00 8:56

Not a small lesson. Uh Cerebrus priced at more than 90 times trailing sales. Only four other companies outside of healthcare have done that since 2021. So price to perfection turned into price to disappointment pretty fast.

SPEAKER_01 9:09

Yeah, which is why next week is such an important test. Uh seven deals, varied sectors, including a moonshot like continuum, how they price, how they trade, that'll reveal where the line is between healthy enthusiasm and what's been overshot.

SPEAKER_00 9:22

Mm-hmm. Experienced investors know to own IPOs across market cycles, but discipline matters way more, definitely not less in a hot market. Casting a wide net is often not the answer, but I'd say that's especially true when hype and FOMO are high.

SPEAKER_01 9:38

And the risk isn't that the market is wrong about AI so much. I think it's more that you know pricing reflects uh the perfect outcome, and that rarely happens. I think that's been the lesson with Cerebrus so far. Now, of course, you know, we're still in early days. Uh, this is a bet on a multi-year uh trend. So I don't want to hit the company too hard, but it really does uh point to you know not buying into the hype too much. And uh just to step back a bit uh and talk about you know what we've seen in the market and the volatility there. Avery, I know last month Bill said that the Iran war was holding back markets and that once the war was over, stocks would rip higher. But I don't know if that's right. Clearly, this week has shown us what that what the stock market truly loves, what investors love, is a constant barrage of contradictory headlines on Iran. I'm kidding, of course, but if an investor doesn't trust this rally, I am sympathetic. Um it's hard to explain too much about what's going on. You know, you can point to earnings, but uh if you try and point to geopolitical uh headlines, you're gonna be flip-flopping back and forth uh every every other day. So I think that's why as an investor, you stay invested. And as an issuer, I mean it almost doesn't matter why the markets are going up, you go public when you can. So I think that's what we're seeing now with these uh filings and launches.

SPEAKER_00 11:00

Yeah, that's a that's a really good analysis uh because it's hard to explain why things are going so well, but the evidence is right in front of us. Um and with that, let's look to the scoreboard for existing new stocks because we had another strong week with a notable shift. Uh the IPO index up 6.6%, uh SP up 1.4%, and this time software names led the winners. So that's new.

SPEAKER_01 11:26

Yeah, and uh Reddit took the top spot in the index up 24%. Social media platform is getting re-rated higher. It's a meaningful name leading the index this week.

SPEAKER_00 11:36

And the broader software and advertising strength matters in the context of liftoff mobile coming next week. The sector is showing signs of life right when a new software issuer is testing demand.

SPEAKER_01 11:46

Now, energy and aerospace names land at the bottom of the IPO index this week as investors take gains on the possibility of an end to the Iran conflict.

SPEAKER_00 11:54

Yeah, if it's a sign of peace in the Middle East, that's the kind of sector weakness I'm happy to see. Defense and energy under pressure because geopolitical tensions are easing is a positive macro signal, even if it hurts individual names.

SPEAKER_01 12:07

Fair.

unknown 12:08

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 12:09

So zooming out, what does this entire setup actually mean? Uh this is the IPO market we've been waiting for for literally years now. The newsletter says it plainly, and the data supports it. Uh, the IPO index up 24% year to date, seven deal week incoming, and now three mega IPOs queued for 2026.

SPEAKER_01 12:27

Wow. Yeah, and the the breadth is what's new. For most of the year, the rebound was narrow. We've had defense, AI infrastructure, biotech, energy. Now software is showing signs of life. Liftoff is testing the window next week with Natrata not far behind. Other sectors emerging, uh, financials, for example.

SPEAKER_00 12:46

Yeah, I feel like we were just talking about the the buckets that we were seeing and kind of not straying from that. So this is definitely a structural shift in the calendar. Um, and now SpaceX in June, OpenAI and Anthropic in the fall. That's a year that rewrites what's possible.

SPEAKER_01 13:02

And the risk is the same one that we have been flagging, uh price to perfection in too many places all at once. Uh we pointed to Cerebras earlier and a few others that are getting kind of too hot on day one and falling in the aftermarket. So as an investor, you need to watch out for that. And that can happen to more names if reality can't match the hype.

SPEAKER_00 13:21

Yeah, and the discipline question is the right one to ask because not it's not whether the market is open, it clearly is. Uh, it's whether buyers are pricing realistically.

SPEAKER_01 13:31

And next week we'll hold the answer. We've got seven deals, varied profiles, all pricing in a hot market. We'll see how they trade.

SPEAKER_00 13:39

All right. With that, what are we watching as the storms hit? Uh, definitely all seven deals next week, but especially lift off mobile. First software IPO of the year. Uh, and that outcome has the potential to carry some weight through the coming months.

SPEAKER_01 13:53

Right. We've got SpaceX Roadshow launch. We're looking at the number of shares they're going to offer, the pricing range and the target valuation, uh, the retail allocation, and the ultimate timing of the deal. So we'll we'll know a lot more by the end of next week, but that's what we'll look out for.

SPEAKER_00 14:08

Mm-hmm. And definitely the aftermarket on Cerebrus and the other recent pops. Uh, the question is, is this 20% pullback a one-off or the start of a broader recalibration? And that will have big implications for the broader AI wave.

SPEAKER_01 14:22

All right. Calm's over. Here come the storms.

SPEAKER_00 14:26

Mm-hmm. That's it for this week's winners and losers. So get the full newsletter in your inbox by clicking the link in the description. Thanks for listening. And before we go, please listen carefully to our full disclosure. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Renaissance Capital statements should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Certain of the statements contain maybe statements of future expectations and other forward looking statements that are based on Renaissance Capital's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Past performance does not guarantee future results. One cannot invest directly in an index.